Introducing Hourglass

The discussion revolves around the management and potential future exploitation of early Pay-to-PubKey (P2PK) coins in the Bitcoin network, with a focus on the implications of quantum computing (QC) on these coins. The premise is built on the idea that allowing these early, inactive, and vulnerable coins to be "naturally recycled" without altering their unlocking scripts presents a more favorable approach than other methods such as freezing or burning the coins. This methodology is championed for its technical, cultural, and moral superiority, advocating for a form of cryptographic romanticism over more authoritarian measures.

An estimated count of 45,700 P2PK outputs sets the stage for understanding the scale at which this issue might need to be addressed. The concern is rooted in a hypothetical future where quantum computing advances to a point where it becomes feasible to crack the cryptographic keys associated with these coins at a rate of roughly one key per block, spanning nearly a year's worth of UTXO generation based on current metrics. This scenario unfolds various potential outcomes concerning mining pools and entities capable of producing QC signatures.

One scenario anticipates the public availability of QC signatures, making them easily accessible to miners. This could lead to mining pools selecting the most profitable signatures, although the brief window between signature availability and commoditization may limit this outcome's likelihood. Another possibility involves a single entity swiftly utilizing QC-generated signatures to claim UTXOs, attempting to maintain a competitive edge through either direct mining efforts or collaborations, potentially leading to collusion among miners if transaction fees are kept low.

Alternatively, the emergence of multiple entities capable of generating QC signatures could ignite bidding wars for transaction inclusion, though this may also encourage collusion to suppress fees and maximize profits in other areas. A contrasting strategy might involve a patient miner, possibly with QC capabilities, selectively including P2PK transactions in their blocks to optimize long-term gains. This approach, however, raises concerns regarding Miner Extractable Value (MEV) and the competitiveness of miners lacking QC partnerships.

Given the speculative nature of these scenarios and the uncertain timeframe for QC advancements, the debate underscores the complexity of addressing early P2PK coin security without compromising Bitcoin's underlying principles. The conversation reflects broader concerns about market reactions, the strategic responses of potential QC entities, and the overarching challenge of securing a decentralized digital currency against evolving technological threats.