delvingbitcoin
Combined summary - Modeling (Social) Consensus About (Cryptographic) Consensus Change
The discussion introduces a unique perspective on Bitcoin's ossification, diverging from the commonly cited halving events.
It instead focuses on the impact of these events alongside the influence of significant investors and custodians in scaling Bitcoin. The theory is underpinned by empirical testing, drawing from Karl Popper's theory of falsification which posits that for a theory to be considered scientific, it must be capable of being disproven through empirical evidence. This approach is applied to "ZmnSCPxj's Law of Ossification," which is tested through the timeline of the implementation of Merkelized Abstract Syntax Trees (MAST), highlighting an eight-year gap from its initial mention in 2013 to its incorporation into consensus rules in 2021.
Bitcoin's economic model is significantly influenced by its halvening event, which occurs every four years and halves the reward for mining new blocks. This reduction in supply, against a backdrop of consistent demand from long-term holders practicing Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA), typically results in a price surge. Such increases attract new investors, who not only add to the demand but also participate in the consensus process, thereby gaining economic influence particularly in scenarios like chainsplits. This phenomenon underscores the critical nature of unanimous agreement within Bitcoin's consensus mechanism, aimed at preventing fragmentation and ensuring network security.
The interplay between the halvening cycle and consensus dynamics gives rise to what is described as the 'Law of Ossification'. This principle suggests that with each halvening, as the Bitcoin community expands, reaching a consensus on future changes becomes increasingly challenging. The growing community size and the necessity to convince new members about the merits of proposed changes make significant protocol amendments more difficult over time. This gradual stiffening of Bitcoin's protocol, as encapsulated in the concept of "ZmnSCPxj's Law Of Ossification", indicates that significant changes become harder to implement as the community grows, emphasizing a natural progression towards rigidity in the face of evolving membership and perspectives.