Modeling (Social) Consensus About (Cryptographic) Consensus Change

The discussion revolves around an alternative theory for Bitcoin's ossification, diverging from the commonly held belief that this process is primarily driven by halving events. The theory presented suggests that factors beyond mere algorithmic changes or market dynamics play a significant role in the evolution and stabilization of Bitcoin. It points to a document (Simple Sabotage) as a basis for understanding these influences, indicating that strategies outlined within could be applied or observed in the context of Bitcoin's development.

Furthermore, the narrative extends into the realm of real-world power dynamics, hinting at the involvement of influential figures and financial stakeholders in shaping the trajectory of Bitcoin. This includes investors who are not just passive spectators but active participants seeking to mold the cryptocurrency's future, possibly through mechanisms such as custodianship and other forms of scalability efforts. The implication here is that Bitcoin's path may be subject to manipulation or steering by those with vested interests, far removed from the decentralized ethos it promotes.

This perspective sheds light on the complex interplay between technology, economics, and socio-political forces in the cryptocurrency space. It challenges the community to consider broader, more nuanced factors that might contribute to the behavior and eventual ossification of Bitcoin, beyond the technical aspects of halving cycles and market speculation.