BMAX: pricing “sats now vs sats later” via a mining sharechain (no L1 changes, no custodians, no oracles)

The discussion involves a comparison and contrast between BMAX and Hashpool, two platforms involved in the blockchain and mining sectors. Hashpool addresses the valuation of probabilistic future mining shares through a marketplace for mining futures. This allows for the current value of mined shares to be assessed at a discounted price now versus their full price in the future when a block is found. In contrast, BMAX distinguishes itself by operating its own network and integrating Bitcoin nodes within its architecture. This setup enables BMAX to observe relevant Bitcoin on-chain metrics such as fee rates and difficulty levels without relying on external oracles or federations. This capability allows BMAX to settle contracts and bets related to these metrics internally.

The conversation also delves into the economic rationale behind the willingness of individuals to pay more currently than they would receive in the future, considering the time value of money. The present value of an offer is calculated based on the discount rate, which encompasses various risks including counterparty default risk, inflation risk, and opportunity cost. This calculation reflects the individual's time preference and can provide insights into collective time preferences over different time horizons. For short-term considerations, this information benefits hedgers and speculators, while long-term economic actors, such as miners or businesses planning capital-intensive projects, gain valuable insights for strategic decision-making. The discourse suggests that there is potential for improvement in how these decisions are made, particularly by reducing reliance on traditional fiat financial systems.

Furthermore, the discussion acknowledges the existence of demand for immediate liquidity options for miners, suggesting that selling bonded shares on an open market could serve this need effectively. This approach would allow miners to become immediately liquid without requiring the pool to take on an insurance role. However, concerns are raised regarding the unbonded shares within the sharechain, emphasizing the need for a robust design to address potential issues and maintain the integrity and desired properties of BMAX, such as incentive compatibility, oracle-free operation, and non-custodial nature. The constructive feedback provided aims to refine BMAX’s design to better meet these goals while addressing raised concerns.