BMAX: pricing “sats now vs sats later” via a mining sharechain (no L1 changes, no custodians, no oracles)

The discussion delves into the concept of Bitcoin as a potential global base money and its implications for achieving a true risk-free interest rate. The fixed supply nature of Bitcoin suggests a theoretical zero percent risk-free rate, positing an ideal scenario where future and present values are equally esteemed. However, this notion is complicated by finite lifespans and the inherent uncertainties surrounding Bitcoin's future, suggesting that a positive risk-free rate persists due to these risks.

The conversation further explores the BMAX concept, which aims to create futures markets through endogenous instruments such as shares and bonds, tied to the stochastic stream of block rewards. This initiative faces significant uncertainty, particularly concerning the sharechain network's ability to sustain or increase its hash rate contribution to the Bitcoin network. The comparison between the counterparty risks in traditional Bitcoin mining and those proposed in the BMAX model reveals nuanced considerations about network reliance and the temporal scope of financial instruments within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

A critical aspect of this discussion is the practicality and utility of the BMAX mechanism beyond the mining sector, emphasizing its potential to provide continuity and insurance for mining payouts. Despite skepticism regarding its direct implementation on Bitcoin, the proposal underscores the broader implications for capital allocation and security in Bitcoin’s future. It highlights how BMAX could offer investors and hodlers an opportunity to participate in Bitcoin's growth, without the complications associated with centralized exchanges or traditional companies.

Ultimately, the viability of BMAX hinges on its capacity to contribute meaningfully to Bitcoin's work and the community's reception towards embracing such innovations. The challenges of minimizing protocol risk, optimizing economic incentives, and fostering a trust-minimized environment are pivotal. The underlying concern remains whether there is sufficient demand and conceptual support for BMAX, or if it risks being dead on arrival due to shifting preferences towards more traditional financial structures, thus potentially straying from Bitcoin's foundational principles of decentralization and autonomy. This dialogue encapsulates the ongoing debate within the cryptocurrency sphere regarding innovation, risk management, and the future trajectory of Bitcoin as a self-sustaining global monetary system.