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sipaPosted by sipa
Aug 14, 2025/13:31 UTC
The discussion revolves around the methodology for estimating hash rates within blockchain networks, specifically critiquing and proposing different models for accuracy. Initially, it's posited that using the k'th lowest hash as a basis for estimation is less effective compared to calculating the ratio of total work over total time, particularly (n-1)/n * sum(work)/sum(time)
. This critique stems from the inherent limitations posed by random processes in blockchain operations, where either the number of blocks is fixed and time varies, or vice versa. The conversation suggests that a model based on a fixed time window with variable block numbers offers a more accurate reflection of hash rates, especially for evaluating performance over specific periods, such as the past week.
Further elaboration introduces a scenario-based approach to hashrate estimation, which involves subdividing a fixed amount of time into segments, each with predetermined hashrate and difficulty levels. By simulating the number of blocks found in each segment through a Poisson distribution and subsequently calculating the sum of work over the window's duration, the method aims to provide an unbiased estimate of the average hashrate. This proposed model assumes the ability to accurately represent real-world dynamics where hashrate and difficulty adjust over time, possibly even in response to previous blocks' timestamps.
Moreover, this discourse extends into a deeper analysis whereby the difficulty rate's influence on the estimation process is scrutinized. It is suggested that while difficulty impacts the number of blocks discovered within each time segment, it does not skew the expected value of the overall calculation. Essentially, the difficulty can be adjusted based on prior blocks without affecting the unbiased nature of the hashrate estimation. The argument further complicates by considering hashrate fluctuations influenced by previous block timestamps, yet maintains that the foundational premise still holds true. Through this comprehensive exploration, the conclusion firmly supports the model of using sum(work in window) / (window duration)
as an accurate and unbiased estimator for hashing power over designated periods, accommodating changes in both hashrate and difficulty as functions of time and previous blockchain activity.
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