Augur: Block’s Open Source Bitcoin Fee Estimation Library

This innovative tool is designed to offer real-time fee recommendations for Bitcoin transactions by analyzing live mempool data instead of relying on historical block data. This approach aims to provide more accurate fee suggestions that reflect current network conditions. Augur's methodology prioritizes transactions in the mempool based on their fee rate and assesses transaction inflow rates to predict confirmation times with varying degrees of confidence. This mempool-first strategy marks a departure from traditional fee estimation models, which depend heavily on past data, allowing for dynamic adjustments to fee recommendations in response to actual network activity. Block also developed a custom benchmarking tool to evaluate Augur's performance against other major fee estimators, focusing on metrics such as miss rate, average overestimate, and total difference. Initial findings suggest that Augur achieves a balance between reliability and cost-effectiveness, particularly during periods of normal-to-moderate mempool volatility. To further support the development community, Block intends to release an open-source version of their benchmarking tool, enabling others to assess Augur's accuracy, compare it with alternative solutions, and contribute to its improvement. This initiative highlights Block's commitment to transparency and collaboration in advancing Bitcoin fee estimation methodologies. Developers and enthusiasts are encouraged to explore Augur and its reference implementation to better understand how it can enhance their applications and transactions on the Bitcoin network.

In addition to Augur, the conversation around Bitcoin Core versions and their impact on fee estimation emerged as a focal point. An investigation into the curl https://blockstream.info/api/fee-estimates command led to the inference that Bitcoin Core version 27.2 might be utilized based on documentation and configuration files found within the Blockstream GitHub repository. This analysis underpins expectations of enhanced accuracy in future releases, starting from version 28.0, attributed to improvements like the adoption of an "economical" default mode for estimating transaction fees. Such developments are expected to reduce overestimation rates and the average overestimation factor, indicating ongoing efforts to optimize Bitcoin Core for better service to the user base amidst the evolving cryptocurrency transaction landscape.

The release of a dataset and benchmarking tool by Block provides valuable resources for the community, covering Bitcoin block fee spans and fee estimations from multiple providers for the first half of 2025. By making these tools available, Block encourages exploration, reproduction of results, and feedback sharing, fostering an environment of openness and collaborative advancement. The inclusion of specific links, such as the Bitcoin Augur Benchmarking dataset and the direct GitHub link supporting the educated guess about the Bitcoin Core version used, ensures that readers have direct access to the referenced materials, enhancing the utility and credibility of the information presented.