Hourglass V2 Update

The migration of 1.7 million Bitcoin (BTC) from pay-to-pubkey (P2PK) outputs under a restriction limiting transfers to 1 BTC per block presents a significant time challenge for the entire amount to be moved. This process, even under optimistic scenarios where a substantial portion of these coins are considered lost, unfolds over an extended period. For instance, assuming a loss rate of 75%, it would still require eight years for the migration to complete. In more extreme cases, where 99% of the coins are presumed lost, the process would span 118 days.

This prolonged timeframe introduces a competitive dynamic among legitimate coin holders aiming to relocate their assets without restrictions. Such competition is anticipated to result in a considerable transfer of wealth from the holders to miners. The scenario underscores the logistical and economic complexities involved in migrating a large volume of Bitcoin under stringent constraints.