Bitcoin as Digital Latin: Asymptotic Ossification and the End of Semantic Drift

The discussion revolves around the inevitable ossification of Bitcoin, particularly in relation to the halvening events and their impact on the underlying and upper layers of blockchain technology. The argument posits that, similar to how the DNA for basic proteins must remain unchanged due to its critical role for multiple dependents, the foundational layers of blockchain technology must also stabilize as upper layers become more complex and dependent on them. This stability is crucial to prevent any potential disruptions that could arise from changes at the lower levels.

A significant concern highlighted is the risk associated with changes that could lead to a chainsplit and contentious fork, especially for Lightning Network (LN) operators. Such events are feared because they have the potential to cause material financial losses to LN forwarding nodes. An example provided illustrates how an LN node could suffer financial losses if it follows one chainsplit while its pre-chainsplit channels are unilaterally closed by peers, exploiting the funds valid on both chainsplits. This scenario underscores the vulnerability of LN nodes to changes that threaten the unity of the blockchain, emphasizing the necessity for any proposed changes to offer substantial benefits, such as a significant increase in fee earnings for LN node operators, to be considered viable.

Furthermore, the resistance from LN node operators against changes that do not provide clear, substantial financial benefits is noted. It is argued that LN node operators form a massive economic bloc whose interests cannot be ignored without risking major disruptions to the Lightning Network. The possibility of LN node operators mass-closing their channels in preference for a particular chainsplit is presented as a consequential risk that could severely disrupt network operations.

The narrative draws a parallel with the mythological figure Cassandra, suggesting a recognition of future challenges and the difficulties in addressing or communicating these impending issues within the community. This analogy highlights the predicament of foreseeing potential problems in the evolution of blockchain technology, particularly Bitcoin, and the complexities involved in navigating these challenges amidst varying interests and the inherent resistance to change.