Re: [Opt-in full-RBF] Zero-conf apps in immediate danger

In a recent discussion on X, several noteworthy insights regarding Bitcoin and Lightning Network's performance metrics over the past few years were highlighted. The dialogue pointed out a decline in the relative volume of Bitcoin/Lightning transactions, which fell from 30%-40% in 2022 to 25%-30% by late 2024. Additionally, the monthly active users metric indicated a reduction in Bitcoin/Lightning volume, dropping from about 50% to around 40% within the same timeframe. This shift was accompanied by a significant transition from on-chain transactions to those conducted via the Lightning Network. A comparison between on-chain and Lightning payments revealed that individual on-chain transactions are typically four times larger in value than those executed through the Lightning Network.

The thread also touched upon Bitrefill's decision to cease accepting zero-confirmation (zeroconf) transactions around August or September of 2023. Although the specific reasons behind this move were not detailed, it suggests concerns over potential fraud or a proactive measure to enhance transaction security. Despite the lack of clear correlation between on-chain activity dips and Bitrefill's policy change, the overall decrease in on-chain transactions could be linked to spikes in transaction fees, as well as an increased reliance on Bitrefill accounts. Such accounts offer users a way to mitigate the impact of fees and confirmation delays by pre-loading funds for future expenditures.

Another critical observation from the discussion was the disproportionate influence of business partnerships on the Lightning Network's user base, with over half of its monthly active users attributed to these alliances. This has led to speculation that only a fraction of Lightning transactions—possibly as low as 12.5% to as high as 25%—are initiated by users who actually control their private keys. This trend underscores a predominant growth in the business-to-business (B2B) sector over peer-to-peer (P2P) usage within the Lightning Network, raising questions about Bitcoin's effectiveness as a decentralized payment system. The analysis suggests that while strategies like custodying funds with services like Bitrefill may provide short-term benefits, they potentially detract from the ideal of Bitcoin enabling users to act as their own banks.

Further details and discussions can be found in the original thread on X here.