Re: [Opt-in full-RBF] Zero-conf apps in immediate danger

A notable shift in the "relative volume" metric was observed, with bitcoin/lightning volume decreasing from 30%-40% in 2022 to 25%-30% by late 2024. The "monthly active users" metric also reflected a decrease in bitcoin/lightning volume from about 50% to roughly 40% during a similar timeframe, alongside a significant migration from on-chain transactions to those conducted via the Lightning network.

A distinct difference in behavior between on-chain bitcoin users and lightning users was identified in terms of the "average payment size," where individual on-chain payments were found to be approximately four times greater in value than those made through the Lightning network. Additionally, Bitrefill's decision to stop accepting zero-confirmation (zeroconf) transactions around August or September 2023 was highlighted without clear indication whether this move was triggered by an increase in fraudulent attempts or as a precautionary measure. Analysis of various charts revealed a definite correlation between the decrease in on-chain activity and spikes in transaction fees, though no obvious correlation could be identified between on-chain activity and the period after Bitrefill ceased accepting zeroconf transactions.

Furthermore, the impact of using Bitrefill accounts for transactions was discussed as providing some degree of insulation from both on-chain fees and confirmation delays, without any detailed examination on how these practices have evolved over time or their correlation with either the cessation of support for zeroconf transactions or fee spikes. The thread also shed light on the composition of Lightning network's monthly active users, attributing more than half of this activity to business partnerships rather than direct user engagement with Lightning. This suggests that only a small fraction of Lightning payments, estimated between 12.5% and 25%, are made by users who control their own keys, indicating a trend towards business-to-business (B2B) transactions rather than peer-to-peer (P2P) engagements.

This analysis underscores concerns regarding the overall positive impact of Lightning growth on the Bitcoin payments system, especially given the apparent shift towards B2B transactions and away from the P2P, self-banking model that Bitcoin advocates. The implications of the mempoolfullrbf default setting change, from false to true in version 28.0 of the Bitcoin network, further complicate this landscape. This change, coupled with the reported adoption rate of approximately 30%-40% for this version as of October last year, raises important questions about its effects on transaction volumes, user satisfaction, and the technical or support adjustments required to navigate these changes.