[Research] Bitcoin After Block Rewards: preventing miner deviation as the block rewards approaches zero

Posted by Melvin Carvalho

Jul 13, 2026/22:58 UTC

The inquiry from Junhyuk Jun Lee focuses on the predictive analysis of when significant deviations might occur in Bitcoin's subsidy reductions per block, specifically questioning whether such changes could become materially significant around the year 2040 when the subsidy is expected to decrease to approximately 0.195 BTC. This question is pertinent to discussions about the long-term economic implications and viability of Bitcoin as the block reward continues to halve at predetermined intervals. The anticipation of these events is crucial for developers, economists, and stakeholders within the Bitcoin community to understand potential shifts in mining dynamics and overall network security. Understanding and forecasting these changes are vital for preparing strategies that accommodate the decreasing block reward, thus ensuring sustained participation and stability in the network.

This conversation is part of broader discussions within the "Bitcoin Development Mailing List," a platform subscribed to by individuals keen on following and contributing to the technical and economic development discussions surrounding Bitcoin. Such inquiries not only help in assessing future scenarios but also assist in planning for a robust framework that supports Bitcoin's growth and usability in the face of diminishing miner incentives.

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