Against Allowing Quantum Recovery of Bitcoin

The discussion highlights a nuanced perspective on the quantum-related threats to Bitcoin, emphasizing that the perception of an imminent cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) poses a more immediate risk than the actual emergence of such technology. This viewpoint suggests that the fear and speculation surrounding the development of CRQCs could have significant implications for Bitcoin's stability before any real quantum threat materializes. The argument is made that simply introducing quantum-safe outputs may not effectively mitigate this fear-driven threat. There's skepticism about the willingness or ability of coin holders to transition their assets to these safer outputs due to various reasons, including disbelief in the eventual existence of CRQCs, compatibility issues with existing use cases, or prioritization of more immediately profitable activities like altcoin infrastructure development. Additionally, the challenge is compounded by the existence of lost coins which cannot be transferred to quantum-safe outputs.

Moreover, the conversation points to a critical concern regarding the presence of CRQC-vulnerable coins within the system. Without significant movement of assets to quantum-safe outputs, the fear of CRQC exploitation remains a potent existential threat, potentially leading to sell-offs and market crashes driven by the theft and sale of vulnerable coins by potential CRQC operators. This scenario underscores the complexity and difficulty of fully addressing quantum threats through technical solutions alone.

The ultimate proposition made is that the most effective mitigation strategy against the fear of quantum threats may involve the potential freezing of CRQC-vulnerable coins. This approach suggests that while developing and promoting the adoption of quantum-safe outputs are necessary initial steps, they might only serve as preparatory actions. The effectiveness of these measures in averting quantum-induced crises hinges on the subsequent ability to disable or secure quantum-vulnerable outputs, highlighting a layered strategy for addressing both the technical and psychological dimensions of quantum threats to Bitcoin. For further insights into challenges facing Bitcoin exchanges and infrastructure, the reader is directed to a detailed analysis available at this link.