The likelihood of Google discontinuing Google Groups or specifically targeting a bitcoin-dev group for closure is deemed low. This assessment is based on the observation that significant projects like Chromium and Android continue to utilize Google Groups for their communication needs, suggesting stability in the service provided by Google.

Furthermore, the risk of a discussion medium being discontinued or neglected is inherent to any platform chosen, including self-hosted solutions which are subject to their own set of vulnerabilities such as a lack of ongoing maintenance or unforeseen events affecting those responsible for upkeep. The current situation with the Linux Foundation highlights such risks, but it's argued that this should not deter the transition to a third-party host.

The emphasis of the message is on finding a reliable and sustainable solution for community discussions without being overly cautious about potential, yet unlikely, negative outcomes. The objective is to ensure continued and effective communication within the bitcoin development community, notwithstanding the inherent uncertainties associated with managing online platforms.