Empirical Data Analysis of Fee Rate Forecasters for ASAP (next-block) Fee Estimation

The primary question raised is about the logic behind selecting transactions from the mempool (a holding area for transactions before they are confirmed) to estimate what needs to be included in the upcoming block. It questions the conventional approach that differentiates between transactions based on their confirmation status rather than considering the most recent transactions within a specific timeframe, such as the last 10 minutes, as a benchmark.

This inquiry challenges the traditional method of prioritizing transactions for the next block by suggesting an alternative approach that relies on the temporal proximity of transactions rather than their confirmed or unconfirmed status. The proposition underlines the idea that, given the expectation of a new block every 10 minutes, it could be more rational and efficient to use the transactions received during this period as a template. This reflects a shift towards a more dynamic and potentially more relevant method of forecasting which transactions are competing for inclusion in the next block, thereby possibly enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of the selection process for block creation.